Not so happy Diwali

Two bomb blasts in a market injured seven, marring Diwali celebrations in Manipur last week.  There was also a bomb blast on a railway track – no injuries were reported – and trains were disrupted in a number of states when two train drivers were abducted in Assam.  An Indian government report released last week found that Manipur and Assam have respectively the highest and fourth highest crime rates in the country.

Jarbom Gamlin finally caved in to pressure and resigned as Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh on Friday.  It is not clear from current reports whether or not the Congress Party has accepted the resignation.

An Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA) article published last week reflects on the continuing blockades in Manipur and makes some constructive suggestions, such as opening the Moreh-Tamu border trade point with Burma.  Despite the huge disruption to daily life caused by the blockades, two autonomous district council by-elections were held in Manipur last Monday without incident. 

Last week's South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) includes an article on the newly formed Karbi Peoples Liberation Tiger (KPLT) group and Karbi National Protection Force (KNPF), splinter groups of a more established Karbi group, the United Peoples Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), currently in talks with the government.  The Karbi people are based in a sixth schedule autonomous district council in Assam.

This CNN-IBN report on corruption in a small Meghalayan village, Upper Kew, is well worth watching.  Despite its jarringly over-dramatic production, it highlights a very real and under-acknowledged problem in the northeast.  Residents in Upper Kew contend they have received no government assistance funds in years.  The central government does however have records of funds, such as employment benefits, being disbursed to individuals in the town.  The likely cause of this discrepancy is a misappropriation of Indian government funds by actors that mediate, often with devastating effects, the relationship between the northeast Indian public and the central government, namely instruments of the state government and insurgent groups.   

Tripura is to have four new districts (doubling current total), six new subdivisions (on top of existing 17) and five new blocks (new total of 45), effective January.  It isn't clear how these new divisions have been devised. 

Following President Thein Sein's recent visit to India, the Burmese government has announced it will let residents of Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh enter Burmese territory within a prescribed distance from the border without a visa.  This move mirrors an Indian concession made earlier in the year  

ULFA's non-talk faction has reportedly been busy recruiting and fundraising in remote northern areas of Assam, slipping over the border to Arunachal Pradesh to AP to evade authorities.  Meanwhile, nothing of any real note seems to have occurred during the latest round of ULFA-government peace talks.

An active week for the GNLA and a new district

Meghalaya police were attacked by Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants on Tuesday.  There was an exchange of fire and the GNLA rebels allegedly attempted, unsuccessfully, to detonate an ‘improvised explosive device’.  A Meghalaya Congress MLA wrote to Congress President Sonia Gandhi earlier in the week saying her intervention is required in the face of continued GNLA threats against parliamentarians.

Municipal elections will be held in early 2012 in Manipur.  There has been violence against, and perpetrated by, supporters of various candidates this week.  The United Naga Council has urged Nagas not to participate.

The Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guards Bangladesh met on 24 September in Dhaka to finalise modalities for joint border management.  Agitations against the recent Indo-Bangladeshi border deal continue.  The All Assam Students' Union (AASU) had an 11 hour hunger strike against the deal, and against proposed hydro electric dams.  Also on Indo-Bangladeshi relations, it came out this week that the failure to extradite Chetia to India before Prime Minister Singh's recent visit was not because the two countries couldn’t reach agreement, but because Chetia said he wouldn’t participate in the peace process unless Paresh Baruah was also involved.

India and Burma agreed to double trade to US$3b by 2015.  The countries' respective Commerce Ministers signed the agreement at the 4^th meeting of Joint Trade Commission held last week. Veteran journalist Bertil Lintner said in an interview this week that widely reported Burmese army action against northeast insurgent camps never happened but was a manufactured story, leaked ahead of the Burmese President’s visit to India.  

Just as Nagas are currently facing a push for a Naga-inhabited district to be subdivided in the Sadar Hills District stand off, so are Bodos facing pressure from a minority seeking its own administrative entity.  Apparently Bodoland Territorial Council chief and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) president Hagrama Mohilary “fumbled and appeared helpless” while speaking to Koch Rajbonshi United Forum meeting home minister P Chidambaram. The Koch-Rajbongshis want a separate state carved out of Cooch Behar, Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Dinajpur, Malda, Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Dhubri and Goalpara.  And Arunachal Pradesh got a new district last week.  Longding, carved out of Tirap district, and bordering Burma and Nagaland, is home to the Wancho community.

And over 7,200 Jews from Mizoram and Manipur, known as the lost tribe of Bnei Menashe, are expected to be approved to emigrate to Israel in the near future.

Wikileaks: BSF-Bangladesh Rifles cooperation and Indo-Burmese cooperation

A 2007 US Government cable reporting on a meeting between a US diplomat and an Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) official reports on the progress of cooperation between the Bangladesh rifles and the Border Security Forces.

There is also mention of rumoured Indian government military support to the Burmese junta in exchange for Burmese cooperation on Indian insurgent groups in their territory.  The MEA official states that the Indo-Burma relationship has been reduced to cooperation on northeast Indian insurgent groups alone, with India failing to win much-prized natural resources contracts in that country.

9th BCIM: moving toward track I

Dhaka's The Daily Star yesterday ran an opinion piece from the Centre of Policy Dialogue in the wake of the 9th Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) forum held in January in Kunming, China, on the importance of that forum.  The BCIM focuses on connectivity and trade facilitation between China's Yunnan province, India's northeast, Bangladesh and Burma. 

The BCIM has traditionally been a track II forum, but with three of the four countries' delegations this year led by a government representative, it seems to be transitioning to track I (ie. government official) level.  A recent blog entry on the Australian National University's South Asia Masala argues that track II is likely to be a more effective level of cooperation for the BCIM given the current state of India-China relations.

The Centre of Policy Dialogue is Bangladesh's BCIM focal point.

Revival of road connecting northeast to Yunnan province

Asia Times Online today reports that the Stilwell, or Ledo, Road is set to be restored with the Burmese Government's award of a contract to a Chinese company to reconstruct a 312 km section of the road from Myitkyina in Burma to the Pangsau Pass on the Indo-Burmese border.

Running 1736 km from Ledo in Assam's east to Kunming in China's Yunnan province through Burma and Arunachal Pradesh, the Stillwell Road was built during World War II.  China is reportedly most enthusiastic about the road although each on India, Burma and China stand to benefit from its restoration.

Update (10/2): India apparently still has some reservations about constructing its portion of the Ledo Road.  The BBC ran a story yesterday quoting an unnamed Indian foreign ministry official saying a decision is yet to be made and that factors such as "possible dumping of Chinese products" and "security of trade envoys"  must be taken into account.

Wikileaks: Indo-Burmese cooperation against insurgents

As with many of the United States cables being progressively published by Wikileaks, a cable released this week on India's relationship with Burma reinforces conclusions already drawn by interested onlookers rather than offering anything revelatory.  The cable, dated 2 November 2004, reports on a meeting with a senior Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) bureaucrat in the wake of visit to New Delhi by Burmese military junta leader Than Shwe.

It states that India does not believe insurgents on the Indo-Burmese border are receiving support from the Burmese government as that would not be in its "strategic interests" and moreover that Burma's military build up on that border is not directly in its own interests but is rather a symptom of the increased interdependence of Indian and Burmese interests in the region.  India's concerns about Chinese influence in Burma are also laid bare in the cable.

Foreign Secretary: Burma important for northeast

In a recent address on India's foreign policy challenges, Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao called Burma an "important neighbour" and said that enhancing the two countries' "connectivity as well as security cooperation is vital, particularly in the context of our north-eastern States and our Look East Policy".

Naga progress due to cooperation with Burma: Hindustan Times

The Hindustan Times ran an interesting editorial earlier this week on Burma, and India's engagement with different elements within that country, crediting the progress in reconciliation with Naga insurgents to a decision by the Indian government to cooperate with Burma.

Border Security Force to take over from Assam Rifles on India-Burmaborder

The outgoing head of the Assam Rifles has said that the Indian government intends for the Border Security Force (BSF) to take over guarding the border with Burma.