A week of progress: new CM for AP and an end to the blockade in Manipur

The Kuki Sadar Hills District Demand Committee (SHDDC)-initiated blockade was finally lifted this week following written assurance from the Manipur state government that Sadar Hills district would be created.  The United Naga Council counter-blockade remains in place.  The LA Times has a pessimistic but interesting article on the blockades.  One claim I found particularly interesting, which is mentioned only in passing, is that those seeking local government positions in Manipur need to pay bribes in the region of $10,000.

Nabam Tuki was sworn in as the new Chief Minister for Arunachal Pradesh on Tuesday.  Tuki, the leader of the agitation against previous CM Jarbom Gamlin, was nominated by Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi.  He is from the Nishi ethnic group.

The hardline Paresh Baruah-led ULFA faction warned civilians to stay away from security and political party “installations” which it vowed to strike this week.  It also reportedly launched an extortion drive to raise much needed funds.  External pressure on the group continues with fresh raids on ULFA camps in Bangladesh  reported yesterday. 

In Darjeeling-area politics, it was reported this week that the title Gorka Territorial Administration (GTA) will be changed to Gorkhaland and Adivasi Territorial Administration after an agreement between the Gorka Janmukti Morcha (GJM) and Adivasi Vikas Parishad (AVP).  It seems that the GJM's tactic is to offer reserved Adivasi seats in turn for the inclusion of the Terai and Dooars in the GTA (or GATA).  Confusingly, it was subsequently reported that such an agreement was not in fact reached, but rather that it was only proposed by the GJM.  Regardless, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee appears to be taking credit for being behind the agreement's brokerage.

Banerjee also said this week that her party, Trinamool, aspires to national influence and will begin its expansion in northeastern states. 

Four police and one civilian were killed in a shootout between police and suspected Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants in Western Meghalaya on Monday.  The state government has vowed to step up operations against the outfit, while the central government this week sought its views on classifying the GNLA as an outlawed rebel outfit.

CNN-IBN reports that the Indian army intends to station an additional 100,000 men in Arunachal Pradesh.  This follows recent reports (see this post) that India intends to increase its missile deployment along the Chinese border in that state.

This week's South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the Maoist infiltration of the northeast, describing Arunachal as a "hotbed" of Maoist activity.  Times Now reported this week that the central government has intelligence that there is increased Maoist activity in the Arunachal-Assam border area.  

In other border-related news this week, tension persists on the Assam-Nagaland border, The Asian Age has an article on the many hardships of living on the India-Bangla border - despite the recent border agreement between the two countries - and it was reported that the Border Security Force (BSF) is likely to replace the Assam Rifles on the India-Burma border.  A similar report was made about twelve months ago.

Weapons and violence in Assam; dark days in Manipur

This week ULFA handed over weapons ahead of the next round of peace talks, scheduled for 25 October.  Meanwhile, a cache of so-called “sophisticated” weapons was seized in Assam.  The European weapons are thought to have been headed for the NDFB.  In other weapon-related news, India will deploy three BrahMos cruise missiles in Arunachal Pradesh.  

There has been violence in Dima Hasao district, Assam, with at least one dead.  Assam police allege NSCN-IM involvement in the unrest.  Around 200 Hmar's from the district have fled to Mizoram.  Hmars are a minority in the district, which is dominated by the Dimasa ethnic group.  

There was also more violence between the NSCN-IM and the Zeliangrong United Front in Manipur's hills this week.  In other violent developments in the region, a senior Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militant was killed by Meghalaya police.  And a bomb exploded in a Manipur district bordering Burma this week, injuring three Assam Rifle officers.

Following the recent release of a report on the impact of conflict on women in Assam and Nagaland (referenced in last week's post), UAE-based The National ran an article on the plight of Manipur's widows and orphans.  An article in the Times of India ponders whether Manipur is doomed to be a failed state.

A Times of India report reveals that Rongili (“cheerful lady”), Lakhimi (“homely lady”) and Kopili (“speedy river”) are code words for ULFA factions in Burma, Bangladesh and an island in the Brahmputra respectively. 

Controversy over the India-Bangladesh border deal persists.  A Minister in the Assam Government said they should not have made public the details of the deal, a move made in retaliation to an inflammatory press release from Paresh Baruah.  The state government accuses Baruah of drawing out these details in order to give the Bangladeshi government trouble as the previous government and now opposition in that country was much more ULFA-friendly. 

Women in conflict, tension between states and rebel groups and positive bilateral developments

The Centre for North East Studies and Policy Research has released a major report, Bearing Witness, the Impact of Conflict on Women in Nagaland and Assam.  It makes a number of recommendations, including among others the establishment of a conflict studies institute, dedicated female legal services, rehabilitation and compensation packages, specialised mental health services and improved earning opportunities for women.

A recent United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) press release called for northeast Indian insurgent groups to unite against their common enemy: the Indian government.  In the face of persistent rivalries, competing aims and violence, this seems an impossible goal.  On 7 October for instance six National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) cadres and one civilian were killed in a shootout between the NSCN-IM and the Zeliangrong Tiger Force (ZTF) , the armed wing of the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) in Manipur.

Leading expert on northeast Indian politics, Sanjib Baruah, published an article in Himal on the current peace process between the government of India and UFLA last week.  Bodos recently marked the 25th anniversary of the start of their struggle.  Tehelka ran a piece on their frustration at the lack of attention, relative to ULFA, being paid to them by the central government.

A pro-Assam activist said last week that the Assamese government is standing by as Naga interests encroach on its territory, by for example building government offices.  He suspects a conspiracy between Nagas and the central government to bring about a greater Nagaland, or Nagalim.  A couple of days later the Assam Government asked its counterparts in Nagaland to remove police from its territory.  Meanwhile, in the complicated musical chairs that is loyalty in the northeast, inhabitants of the West Khasi hills area of Meghalaya reportedly want to join Assam.

A bandh in Arunachal Pradesh’s capital Itanagar last Tuesday resulted in at least 50 people injured and calls for calm by embattled Chief Minister Jarbom Gamlin.  In other bandh-related news for the region, the Sadar Hills District blockade is now the longest ever in Manipur, passing the 70-day milestone last Sunday. 

 

There were some positive developments in northeast India since my last post.  The central government is working on a plan to spend Rs. 80 billion upgrading roads in the region. Following the failure to sign a comprehensive agreement on transit during PM Singh’s recent visit to Dhaka, Bangladesh has agreed to allow India to transport food grains through its territory.  And China and India are said to be working on a mechanism for managing their shared border. 

 

Delhi police have uncovered links between the People’s Liberation Army PLA (from Manipur), Maoists (the Communist Party of India (Maoist)) and militants in Kashmir following arrests in Delhi and Imphal, and a raid in Pune. 

 

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee visited Darjeeling and surrounds last week.  The visit did not go down particularly well among locals according to reports.  The fact that the recent Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA) agreement in effect only deferred addressing the issue of Gorkhaland's eventual administrative status came to the forefront during the visit.  I published a background article on developments in Gorkhaland on the South Asia Masala blog a couple of weeks ago.

An active week for the GNLA and a new district

Meghalaya police were attacked by Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants on Tuesday.  There was an exchange of fire and the GNLA rebels allegedly attempted, unsuccessfully, to detonate an ‘improvised explosive device’.  A Meghalaya Congress MLA wrote to Congress President Sonia Gandhi earlier in the week saying her intervention is required in the face of continued GNLA threats against parliamentarians.

Municipal elections will be held in early 2012 in Manipur.  There has been violence against, and perpetrated by, supporters of various candidates this week.  The United Naga Council has urged Nagas not to participate.

The Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guards Bangladesh met on 24 September in Dhaka to finalise modalities for joint border management.  Agitations against the recent Indo-Bangladeshi border deal continue.  The All Assam Students' Union (AASU) had an 11 hour hunger strike against the deal, and against proposed hydro electric dams.  Also on Indo-Bangladeshi relations, it came out this week that the failure to extradite Chetia to India before Prime Minister Singh's recent visit was not because the two countries couldn’t reach agreement, but because Chetia said he wouldn’t participate in the peace process unless Paresh Baruah was also involved.

India and Burma agreed to double trade to US$3b by 2015.  The countries' respective Commerce Ministers signed the agreement at the 4^th meeting of Joint Trade Commission held last week. Veteran journalist Bertil Lintner said in an interview this week that widely reported Burmese army action against northeast insurgent camps never happened but was a manufactured story, leaked ahead of the Burmese President’s visit to India.  

Just as Nagas are currently facing a push for a Naga-inhabited district to be subdivided in the Sadar Hills District stand off, so are Bodos facing pressure from a minority seeking its own administrative entity.  Apparently Bodoland Territorial Council chief and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) president Hagrama Mohilary “fumbled and appeared helpless” while speaking to Koch Rajbonshi United Forum meeting home minister P Chidambaram. The Koch-Rajbongshis want a separate state carved out of Cooch Behar, Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Dinajpur, Malda, Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Dhubri and Goalpara.  And Arunachal Pradesh got a new district last week.  Longding, carved out of Tirap district, and bordering Burma and Nagaland, is home to the Wancho community.

And over 7,200 Jews from Mizoram and Manipur, known as the lost tribe of Bnei Menashe, are expected to be approved to emigrate to Israel in the near future.

Firearms, messy politics and CRAPB

Northeast India made international headlines this week due to, of course, the 6.9 magnitude earthquake in Sikkim.  We felt it here in Pokhara.

India Armed Violence Assessment, a new Small Arms Survey project, released two reports this week.  The first documents the prevalence of firearm murders across India's states and territories.  The most violent states (firearm murders per 100,000 population) are listed in table 3.  Three northeastern states make this list, including the top two (Manipur and Nagaland, which are considerably higher than the next highest state; Arunachal Pradesh is 7^th).  Sikkim is one of the states with the least firearm murders (table 4).  The report also discusses the limited available information on autopsy rates.  Interestingly Imphal is found to have the highest rate of any Indian city of autopsies for gun shot victims.

The second report compares the number of deaths due to terrorism (including, perhaps controversially, insurgent movements) and crime in India.  It concludes that the latter is politically neglected given the relatively higher number of victims of criminal violence in the country.  Northeast India is briefly considered on pages 5-6.  In related news, two workers from Bihar were shot dead in Manipur this week. 

The Assam Assembly will hold a one day special sitting on the recent land swap deal with Bangladesh in October in response to expressions of dissatisfaction from various quarters with the deal and the lack of prior consultation. 

A steady, if thin, stream of claims of links between northeast groups and Maoists prevails in the Indian media.  An article this week says Maoists are present in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and that they have links with ULFA and the NSCN-IM.  They are also said to be working with anti hydro-electric dam activists.

Politics is messy in Arunachal Pradesh, especially since the death of the previous Chief Minister in a helicopter accident last year.  A group of rebel ruling Congress Party MLAs have been in New Delhi since July seeking the removal of present Chief Minister Jarbom Gamlin.  They are now calling for the direct intervention of Congress President Sonia Gandhi.

The first meeting of the Committee on Reorganization of Administrative and Police Boundaries (CRAPB) was finally held this week.  The CRAPB is the body tasked with producing a report to the state government on the Sadar Hills District issue that is currently crippling life in Manipur.  They have been given three months to submit the report.  Bibhu Prasad Routray this week considered the various next steps the state government can take on this issue.  In brief, these are to force open the highways, create the Sadar Hills District as desired by Kuki groups, create the district under a different name, try and have Kukis and Nagas talk to each other and do nothing.  None of these options seem particularly promising.

Naga groups oppose Sadar Hills being transformed into a fully-fledged district because the area has a Naga population and they want to see Naga people united under one administrative construct, rather than divided more than they already are.  Now they have problems from within as well: a group called the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation is calling for a new state, Frontier Nagaland, to be carved out of Nagaland.  They held a large rally this week.

This week's South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the United Democratic Liberation Army (UDLA), a Bru and Bengali Muslim group based in southern Assam.  Indian security forces have taken notice of this and one of its splinter groups, the only two Bru groups that remain operational.  The author predicts that as a result “it is unlikely that these groups will retain their capacities for disruption and violence for long”.

Allegations were made about Paresh Baruah’s business investments in Bangladesh this week.  Indian intelligence says he’s invested over US$20million in that country.  ULFA promptly issued a press release denying the claims.

The Meghalaya government has handed over land to the North East Frontier Railway for the construction of a railway that would link the state to the rest of the country.

GNLA active in Meghalaya

The July 25 issue of the South Asia Intelligence Review has an article about the Garo National Liberation Army's (GNLA) recent violent activities, arguing the group is the biggest security threat in Meghalaya.

Meanwhile, the GNLA denied its involvement in a recent gun battle with police in East Garo  Hills district according to an article in The Telegraph.

Meghalaya government investigation: police-rebel collusion

The Meghalaya government last month announced it would conduct an investigation into alleged links between police personnel and the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA).

Since then a police constable has been arrested for leaking information to the GNLA and 20 GNLA cadres have surrendered.

Slow recovery from inter-tribal violence

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) recently published a feature on the Red Cross's efforts to help communities recover from the deadly violence that occured in Assam and Meghalaya earlier this year.  There is also this photo gallery.

SAIR: Meghalaya's 2010 spike in violence

Despite the upbeat picture painted yesterday by the Union Home Minister of data on insurgency-related violence in the northeast in 2010, the South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) this week highlighted the spike in violence seen in Meghalaya in 2010.  As Minister Chidambaram pointed out, there were no security force casualties in the state in 2010, however the number of insurgency-related fatalities of all types (including security forces, civilians and militants) went up for the first time since 2007 to 20 deaths from 5 in 2009 (Ministry of Home Affairs data).  Following a violent January in Meghalaya and neighbouring Assam, 2011 may not see any improvement. 

Violence in Assam and Meghalya

The renewed violence in Assam and Meghalaya has been reported widely this week.  The death toll stands at 10 with as many as 40,000 people displaced.  The violence appears to be between tribal groups rather than against the Government of India.

Four killed in Meghalaya

A gun battle between Indian security forces and suspected separatists last week resulted in the death of at least four rebels in the normally relatively quiet state of Meghalaya.  Those killed were suspected to be from the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA).

Indigenous rights under the spotlight

The Meghalaya People's Human Rights Council raised concerns for the human rights of indigenous people in Northeast India, particularly in relation to human trafficking, at the 15th session of the UN Human Rights Council in September according to The Northeast Today.