Baruah and China, GNLA and Pakistan, Tripura and Greece

Four people were injured in an explosion in Manipur yesterday.  Also yesterday, Government forces shot dead three ULFA militants in Arunachal Pradesh.  Two government offices and four government buses were set alight in Arunachal Pradesh last Friday.

There’s been vague whisperings about the Central Government considering forming a ‘supra-state’ Naga body before the end of the year.  As the Naga imposed blockade in Manipur continues, two weeks after the Kuki-led blockade was called off, the Zeliangrong Youth Front (ZYF) has threatened agitation if their land is included in the to-be created Sadar Hills District.

The Times of Assam says ULFA pushed for talks and dropped its core demand for sovereignty only to get its leaders out of jail.  They claim the rift between the two factions is pure fiction and that the two continue to coordinate closely.
 

11 people have indicted in Bangladesh on arms smuggling charges.  They include Paresh Baruah and other high profile individuals including former ministers and senior bureaucrats.  Apparently the Indian Government has concrete evidence that Mr Baruah is in China.

Someone has a sense of humour: Manipur has been named “best improved state in governance among small states of India”.

There are fresh accusations of links between Pakistan’s ISI and northeast groups: this time it's the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA). 

What do Greece and Tripura have in common?  No, it’s not souvlaki.  Tripura is reportedly enjoying a “severe fiscal crisis” and seeking a bail out of the order of US$3b. 

Not so happy Diwali

Two bomb blasts in a market injured seven, marring Diwali celebrations in Manipur last week.  There was also a bomb blast on a railway track – no injuries were reported – and trains were disrupted in a number of states when two train drivers were abducted in Assam.  An Indian government report released last week found that Manipur and Assam have respectively the highest and fourth highest crime rates in the country.

Jarbom Gamlin finally caved in to pressure and resigned as Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh on Friday.  It is not clear from current reports whether or not the Congress Party has accepted the resignation.

An Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA) article published last week reflects on the continuing blockades in Manipur and makes some constructive suggestions, such as opening the Moreh-Tamu border trade point with Burma.  Despite the huge disruption to daily life caused by the blockades, two autonomous district council by-elections were held in Manipur last Monday without incident. 

Last week's South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) includes an article on the newly formed Karbi Peoples Liberation Tiger (KPLT) group and Karbi National Protection Force (KNPF), splinter groups of a more established Karbi group, the United Peoples Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), currently in talks with the government.  The Karbi people are based in a sixth schedule autonomous district council in Assam.

This CNN-IBN report on corruption in a small Meghalayan village, Upper Kew, is well worth watching.  Despite its jarringly over-dramatic production, it highlights a very real and under-acknowledged problem in the northeast.  Residents in Upper Kew contend they have received no government assistance funds in years.  The central government does however have records of funds, such as employment benefits, being disbursed to individuals in the town.  The likely cause of this discrepancy is a misappropriation of Indian government funds by actors that mediate, often with devastating effects, the relationship between the northeast Indian public and the central government, namely instruments of the state government and insurgent groups.   

Tripura is to have four new districts (doubling current total), six new subdivisions (on top of existing 17) and five new blocks (new total of 45), effective January.  It isn't clear how these new divisions have been devised. 

Following President Thein Sein's recent visit to India, the Burmese government has announced it will let residents of Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh enter Burmese territory within a prescribed distance from the border without a visa.  This move mirrors an Indian concession made earlier in the year  

ULFA's non-talk faction has reportedly been busy recruiting and fundraising in remote northern areas of Assam, slipping over the border to Arunachal Pradesh to AP to evade authorities.  Meanwhile, nothing of any real note seems to have occurred during the latest round of ULFA-government peace talks.

ULFA signs pact, Bangladesh visit disappoints

A suspension of operations pact was signed between the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the Indian and Assam Governments on the first day of their latest round of talks in Delhi. The pact is a stop gap measure, intended to be in place until a political agreement is reached.  Commentators have provided a full spectrum of responses, from optimism - because for example the move echoes similar steps taken earlier in Tripura - to mystification - how can a ceasefire be declared when one of the parties is for all intents and purposes already disarmed?  Parallel talks involving the Karbi Longri National Liberation Front (KLNLF), a group with close ties to ULFA, were inconclusive.

Meanwhile, the Indian Government is worried that the recent acquisition of Chinese arms by the Paresh Baruah, or anti-talks, faction of ULFA (see this post) could ultimately be destined for Maoists.  Bibhu Prasad Routray recently wrote an article on fledgling northeast-Maoist militant links.  In an interesting development, given the credit given to Bangladesh in ultimately bringing talks faction of ULFA to the negotiating table, anti-talk faction bases in Burma were attacked by the Burmese army (with supplies from the Indian government) this week. 

The general consensus on PM Manmohan Singh's visit, together with a number of northeast Chief Ministers, to Bangladesh this week, is disappointment, tempered by some important gains.  West Bengal's relatively new Chief Minister pulled out at the last minute to protest the proposed Teesta river water sharing agreement.  This step apparently worked, with no water sharing agreements signed.  Likely as a result, the much anticipated (on the Indian side) transit agreement also failed to materialise.  This reportedly resulted in a “wave of disappointment” in Tripura.  Neither did the hoped-for extradition of a senior ULFA figure eventuate.

All in all, the visit resulted in one agreement (the obscurely titled “Comprehensive Framework Agreement on Co-operation”) and nine deals (including on university cooperation and renewable energy).  One of the major achievements was the signing of a border pact finalising land swaps between Bangladesh and Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and West Bengal.  This should finally give formerly stateless people definite citizenship rights.  The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)  however decried the lack of consultation on the pact.  

The blockades in Manipur continue.  The SHDDC announced that the general strike was over on Tuesday, but the economic blockades of national highways remain.  The Chinland Guardian has an interview with the General Secretary of the Kuki International Forum.  He gives a good overview of the technicalities behind the demand for a Sadar Hills district.  Another comprehensive background document is available from E-Pao.  And it seems demands for new districts in Manipur are in fashion: another such movement in Tongjei Marin emerged this week.

Despite all the talk about Irom Sharmila of late, the AFSPA was officially extended for another six months in Tripura this week.

29 Naga militants surrendered to authorities in Manipur this week.  Significantly none identified as National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) militants.

Development the key: Tripura police chief

K. Saleem Ali, Tripura's police chief, stated in a recent interview that economic development, together with a crackdown on northeast Indian rebels in Bangladesh, led to the cessation of conflict in that state.

Akhaura-Agartala rail link to be constructed

In the latest in a series of announcements about improving Indo-Bangladeshi rail connectivity, The Daily Star reports on an announcement that the Indian and Bangladeshi governments will cooperate to build a railway track between Agartala (Tripura) and Akhaura (Chittagong division).  This will allow goods from throughout northeast India to reach Chittagong port.

Tripura: fear of violence ahead of local elections

Tripura's Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) state secretary today expressed concern that the state would see violence ahead of the 24 February Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) elections.

Bangladesh to upgrade trade ties with northeast

Bangladesh announced plans to upgrade its presence in the northeast in a bid to increase trade earlier this month, as reported in The Assam Tribune and a number of other publications.

There have also been reports of an Indian Government announcement to improve road and rail links with Bangladesh to facilitate increased trade.  The new infrastructure will link Tripura with the Chittagong port.

Identification numbers introduced

The official launch of a new program to issue all Indians with identity numbers was held in Tripura earlier this month.  The program represents an ambitious attempt to address illegal migration, something which is perceived to be a particular problem in the northeast. 

Tripura courts Bangladesh

Tripura's Chief Minister has offered his state's credentials as a trade hub for Bangladesh's exports to the region in an interview with Bangladeshi newspaper The Daily Star.

Bangladeshi foreign Minister to visit Tripura

Bangladeshi newspaper The Daily Star reports that Bangladesh's Foreign Minister will lead a delegation to Tripura on 10-11 November in a bid to improve trade between her country and India's northeastern states.

ISI agent arrested in Tripura

Sify news reports that an ISI agent was arrested by the Border Security Force as he crossed the border into Tripura from Bangladesh last week.  The agent reportedly told interrogators he was sent by a Bangladeshi opposition party leader.

Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is the Pakistani Government's main intelligence agency.

Debating the AFSPA

Lt Gen Yadava, outgoing chief of the Assam rifles, has again made the news, this time arguing for the importance of the Armed Forces (Special Forces) Act (AFSPA) which he says has been politicised.  The AFSPA has been prominent in the news lately with moves for it to be repealed, wholly or partially, in Jammu and Kashmir.  There have been reports today of the Act's extension for six months in parts of both Arunahcal Pradesh and Tripura.