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This will be my last post for 2011. Northeast Indian watchers should never be starved for reading material though. The Seven Sisters Post, which broke the story on the potential new Naga entity, was launched just a couple of weeks ago, adding to the healthy stream of news and analysis from the region.
Northeast India made international headlines this week due to, of course, the 6.9 magnitude earthquake in Sikkim. We felt it here in Pokhara.
India Armed Violence Assessment, a new Small Arms Survey project, released two reports this week. The first documents the prevalence of firearm murders across India's states and territories. The most violent states (firearm murders per 100,000 population) are listed in table 3. Three northeastern states make this list, including the top two (Manipur and Nagaland, which are considerably higher than the next highest state; Arunachal Pradesh is 7th). Sikkim is one of the states with the least firearm murders (table 4). The report also discusses the limited available information on autopsy rates. Interestingly Imphal is found to have the highest rate of any Indian city of autopsies for gun shot victims.
The second report compares the number of deaths due to terrorism (including, perhaps controversially, insurgent movements) and crime in India. It concludes that the latter is politically neglected given the relatively higher number of victims of criminal violence in the country. Northeast India is briefly considered on pages 5-6. In related news, two workers from Bihar were shot dead in Manipur this week.
The Assam Assembly will hold a one day special sitting on the recent land swap deal with Bangladesh in October in response to expressions of dissatisfaction from various quarters with the deal and the lack of prior consultation.
A steady, if thin, stream of claims of links between northeast groups and Maoists prevails in the Indian media. An article this week says Maoists are present in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and that they have links with ULFA and the NSCN-IM. They are also said to be working with anti hydro-electric dam activists.
Politics is messy in Arunachal Pradesh, especially since the death of the previous Chief Minister in a helicopter accident last year. A group of rebel ruling Congress Party MLAs have been in New Delhi since July seeking the removal of present Chief Minister Jarbom Gamlin. They are now calling for the direct intervention of Congress President Sonia Gandhi.
The first meeting of the Committee on Reorganization of Administrative and Police Boundaries (CRAPB) was finally held this week. The CRAPB is the body tasked with producing a report to the state government on the Sadar Hills District issue that is currently crippling life in Manipur. They have been given three months to submit the report. Bibhu Prasad Routray this week considered the various next steps the state government can take on this issue. In brief, these are to force open the highways, create the Sadar Hills District as desired by Kuki groups, create the district under a different name, try and have Kukis and Nagas talk to each other and do nothing. None of these options seem particularly promising.
Naga groups oppose Sadar Hills being transformed into a fully-fledged district because the area has a Naga population and they want to see Naga people united under one administrative construct, rather than divided more than they already are. Now they have problems from within as well: a group called the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation is calling for a new state, Frontier Nagaland, to be carved out of Nagaland. They held a large rally this week.
This week's South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the United Democratic Liberation Army (UDLA), a Bru and Bengali Muslim group based in southern Assam. Indian security forces have taken notice of this and one of its splinter groups, the only two Bru groups that remain operational. The author predicts that as a result “it is unlikely that these groups will retain their capacities for disruption and violence for long”.
Allegations were made about Paresh Baruah’s business investments in Bangladesh this week. Indian intelligence says he’s invested over US$20million in that country. ULFA promptly issued a press release denying the claims.
The Meghalaya government has handed over land to the North East Frontier Railway for the construction of a railway that would link the state to the rest of the country.
The Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and Delhi Policy Group last month released a report on lessons learnt from India's experience engaging in dialogue with insurgent groups. The major conclusion drawn in the report is that dialogue can be of benefit - by for example, reducing violence - even if it fails to achieve its primary aim of attaining sustainable peace.
Conflict and dialogue in Manipur is one of the report's three case studies. The view presented is guardedly optimistic. Acknowledging the complexity of the situation in Manipur, the report argues that it is not entirely intractable. It cites the Indian Government's talks with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) as an example of a peace process that, despite not effecting a lasting political solution, has helped decrease violence.
Other lessons learnt in Manipur include the counter-productivity of inflexible preconditions to talks and the importance of central and state government coordination. A number of recommendations are made, including increasing the role of civil society, focusing talks on humanitarian - rather than political - concerns and appointing an interlocutor.
The report also represents an excellent background paper on Manipur and its insurgencies.
Last week's edition of the South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the resurgent violence in Manipur. It details recent violence carried out by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and aimed at members of the local Autonomous District Council (ADC).
The article surmises that the ADC-directed violence is a result of the Manipur (Hill Areas) District Councils (3rd Amendment) Act 2008 - and subsequent ADC elections in 2010 - which the NSCN-IM (and related body the United Naga Council) considers bestows an inferior degree of self-governance to Nagas in Manipur than that provided to other ADCs through the Constitution's Sixth Schedule.
Six members of the Manipur Rifles and an independent MLA's driver were killed in an ambush, allegedly at the hands of NSCN(IM) members, earlier this month.
The incident led to the UNLF condemning the NSCN(IM).
The latest installment of the South Asia Intelligence Review contains an assessment of intra-Naga rivalry and violence. The South Asia Terrorism Portal counts 38 deaths so far this year due to violence between different Naga insurgent groups. The violence is primarily between the two factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN): the NSCN (Isak-Muivah) and NSCN (Khaplang). The rival factions are vying for influence in eastern Arunachal Pradesh, near the border with Burma. In addition, a small number of cadres from these two groups have defected to create a new group, the Zeliangrong United Front.
The Diplomat this week published an article on links between Chinese intelligence services and northeast Indian rebel groups, particularly the NSCN(IM). It has been alleged that agents of Chinese intelligence services have done arms deals with the NSCN(IM) and that the NSCN(IM) has established a permanent presence in Kunming, Yunnan Province. The Kunming representative acts as broker and passes on information about Indian armed forces activities in Arunachal Pradesh, a state China claims as its own.
The comments on the article make for interesting reading as well.
The Diplomat article draws heavily on an earlier article published in Outlook India.
