Confusion over new Naga body, administrative renewal for ULFA

Two hardline faction ULFA cadres were killed this week when explosives they were laying on a railway track in Assam exploded.  ULFA claims the men were killed by security forces.  The hardline faction announced its new central committee this week.  The new acting chairman is an unknown.

The Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses has an article on the potential supra-state Naga body mentioned in last week's post.  Affected Chief Ministers have responded with both confusion over the verity of the original report and opposition.  This week's South Asia Intelligence Review has an overview of the ongoing battle between the NSCN-IM and the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), another Naga body.

Briefly, in other news, progress has been made on the extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh.  In Manipur, the government has been destroying floating huts, people's homes on Loktak Lake.

This will be my last post for 2011.  Northeast Indian watchers should never be starved for reading material though.  The Seven Sisters Post, which broke the story on the potential new Naga entity, was launched just a couple of weeks ago, adding to the healthy stream of news and analysis from the region.

Baruah and China, GNLA and Pakistan, Tripura and Greece

Four people were injured in an explosion in Manipur yesterday.  Also yesterday, Government forces shot dead three ULFA militants in Arunachal Pradesh.  Two government offices and four government buses were set alight in Arunachal Pradesh last Friday.

There’s been vague whisperings about the Central Government considering forming a ‘supra-state’ Naga body before the end of the year.  As the Naga imposed blockade in Manipur continues, two weeks after the Kuki-led blockade was called off, the Zeliangrong Youth Front (ZYF) has threatened agitation if their land is included in the to-be created Sadar Hills District.

The Times of Assam says ULFA pushed for talks and dropped its core demand for sovereignty only to get its leaders out of jail.  They claim the rift between the two factions is pure fiction and that the two continue to coordinate closely.
 

11 people have indicted in Bangladesh on arms smuggling charges.  They include Paresh Baruah and other high profile individuals including former ministers and senior bureaucrats.  Apparently the Indian Government has concrete evidence that Mr Baruah is in China.

Someone has a sense of humour: Manipur has been named “best improved state in governance among small states of India”.

There are fresh accusations of links between Pakistan’s ISI and northeast groups: this time it's the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA). 

What do Greece and Tripura have in common?  No, it’s not souvlaki.  Tripura is reportedly enjoying a “severe fiscal crisis” and seeking a bail out of the order of US$3b. 

A week of progress: new CM for AP and an end to the blockade in Manipur

The Kuki Sadar Hills District Demand Committee (SHDDC)-initiated blockade was finally lifted this week following written assurance from the Manipur state government that Sadar Hills district would be created.  The United Naga Council counter-blockade remains in place.  The LA Times has a pessimistic but interesting article on the blockades.  One claim I found particularly interesting, which is mentioned only in passing, is that those seeking local government positions in Manipur need to pay bribes in the region of $10,000.

Nabam Tuki was sworn in as the new Chief Minister for Arunachal Pradesh on Tuesday.  Tuki, the leader of the agitation against previous CM Jarbom Gamlin, was nominated by Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi.  He is from the Nishi ethnic group.

The hardline Paresh Baruah-led ULFA faction warned civilians to stay away from security and political party “installations” which it vowed to strike this week.  It also reportedly launched an extortion drive to raise much needed funds.  External pressure on the group continues with fresh raids on ULFA camps in Bangladesh  reported yesterday. 

In Darjeeling-area politics, it was reported this week that the title Gorka Territorial Administration (GTA) will be changed to Gorkhaland and Adivasi Territorial Administration after an agreement between the Gorka Janmukti Morcha (GJM) and Adivasi Vikas Parishad (AVP).  It seems that the GJM's tactic is to offer reserved Adivasi seats in turn for the inclusion of the Terai and Dooars in the GTA (or GATA).  Confusingly, it was subsequently reported that such an agreement was not in fact reached, but rather that it was only proposed by the GJM.  Regardless, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee appears to be taking credit for being behind the agreement's brokerage.

Banerjee also said this week that her party, Trinamool, aspires to national influence and will begin its expansion in northeastern states. 

Four police and one civilian were killed in a shootout between police and suspected Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants in Western Meghalaya on Monday.  The state government has vowed to step up operations against the outfit, while the central government this week sought its views on classifying the GNLA as an outlawed rebel outfit.

CNN-IBN reports that the Indian army intends to station an additional 100,000 men in Arunachal Pradesh.  This follows recent reports (see this post) that India intends to increase its missile deployment along the Chinese border in that state.

This week's South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the Maoist infiltration of the northeast, describing Arunachal as a "hotbed" of Maoist activity.  Times Now reported this week that the central government has intelligence that there is increased Maoist activity in the Arunachal-Assam border area.  

In other border-related news this week, tension persists on the Assam-Nagaland border, The Asian Age has an article on the many hardships of living on the India-Bangla border - despite the recent border agreement between the two countries - and it was reported that the Border Security Force (BSF) is likely to replace the Assam Rifles on the India-Burma border.  A similar report was made about twelve months ago.

Women in conflict, tension between states and rebel groups and positive bilateral developments

The Centre for North East Studies and Policy Research has released a major report, Bearing Witness, the Impact of Conflict on Women in Nagaland and Assam.  It makes a number of recommendations, including among others the establishment of a conflict studies institute, dedicated female legal services, rehabilitation and compensation packages, specialised mental health services and improved earning opportunities for women.

A recent United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) press release called for northeast Indian insurgent groups to unite against their common enemy: the Indian government.  In the face of persistent rivalries, competing aims and violence, this seems an impossible goal.  On 7 October for instance six National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) cadres and one civilian were killed in a shootout between the NSCN-IM and the Zeliangrong Tiger Force (ZTF) , the armed wing of the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) in Manipur.

Leading expert on northeast Indian politics, Sanjib Baruah, published an article in Himal on the current peace process between the government of India and UFLA last week.  Bodos recently marked the 25th anniversary of the start of their struggle.  Tehelka ran a piece on their frustration at the lack of attention, relative to ULFA, being paid to them by the central government.

A pro-Assam activist said last week that the Assamese government is standing by as Naga interests encroach on its territory, by for example building government offices.  He suspects a conspiracy between Nagas and the central government to bring about a greater Nagaland, or Nagalim.  A couple of days later the Assam Government asked its counterparts in Nagaland to remove police from its territory.  Meanwhile, in the complicated musical chairs that is loyalty in the northeast, inhabitants of the West Khasi hills area of Meghalaya reportedly want to join Assam.

A bandh in Arunachal Pradesh’s capital Itanagar last Tuesday resulted in at least 50 people injured and calls for calm by embattled Chief Minister Jarbom Gamlin.  In other bandh-related news for the region, the Sadar Hills District blockade is now the longest ever in Manipur, passing the 70-day milestone last Sunday. 

 

There were some positive developments in northeast India since my last post.  The central government is working on a plan to spend Rs. 80 billion upgrading roads in the region. Following the failure to sign a comprehensive agreement on transit during PM Singh’s recent visit to Dhaka, Bangladesh has agreed to allow India to transport food grains through its territory.  And China and India are said to be working on a mechanism for managing their shared border. 

 

Delhi police have uncovered links between the People’s Liberation Army PLA (from Manipur), Maoists (the Communist Party of India (Maoist)) and militants in Kashmir following arrests in Delhi and Imphal, and a raid in Pune. 

 

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee visited Darjeeling and surrounds last week.  The visit did not go down particularly well among locals according to reports.  The fact that the recent Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA) agreement in effect only deferred addressing the issue of Gorkhaland's eventual administrative status came to the forefront during the visit.  I published a background article on developments in Gorkhaland on the South Asia Masala blog a couple of weeks ago.

Firearms, messy politics and CRAPB

Northeast India made international headlines this week due to, of course, the 6.9 magnitude earthquake in Sikkim.  We felt it here in Pokhara.

India Armed Violence Assessment, a new Small Arms Survey project, released two reports this week.  The first documents the prevalence of firearm murders across India's states and territories.  The most violent states (firearm murders per 100,000 population) are listed in table 3.  Three northeastern states make this list, including the top two (Manipur and Nagaland, which are considerably higher than the next highest state; Arunachal Pradesh is 7^th).  Sikkim is one of the states with the least firearm murders (table 4).  The report also discusses the limited available information on autopsy rates.  Interestingly Imphal is found to have the highest rate of any Indian city of autopsies for gun shot victims.

The second report compares the number of deaths due to terrorism (including, perhaps controversially, insurgent movements) and crime in India.  It concludes that the latter is politically neglected given the relatively higher number of victims of criminal violence in the country.  Northeast India is briefly considered on pages 5-6.  In related news, two workers from Bihar were shot dead in Manipur this week. 

The Assam Assembly will hold a one day special sitting on the recent land swap deal with Bangladesh in October in response to expressions of dissatisfaction from various quarters with the deal and the lack of prior consultation. 

A steady, if thin, stream of claims of links between northeast groups and Maoists prevails in the Indian media.  An article this week says Maoists are present in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and that they have links with ULFA and the NSCN-IM.  They are also said to be working with anti hydro-electric dam activists.

Politics is messy in Arunachal Pradesh, especially since the death of the previous Chief Minister in a helicopter accident last year.  A group of rebel ruling Congress Party MLAs have been in New Delhi since July seeking the removal of present Chief Minister Jarbom Gamlin.  They are now calling for the direct intervention of Congress President Sonia Gandhi.

The first meeting of the Committee on Reorganization of Administrative and Police Boundaries (CRAPB) was finally held this week.  The CRAPB is the body tasked with producing a report to the state government on the Sadar Hills District issue that is currently crippling life in Manipur.  They have been given three months to submit the report.  Bibhu Prasad Routray this week considered the various next steps the state government can take on this issue.  In brief, these are to force open the highways, create the Sadar Hills District as desired by Kuki groups, create the district under a different name, try and have Kukis and Nagas talk to each other and do nothing.  None of these options seem particularly promising.

Naga groups oppose Sadar Hills being transformed into a fully-fledged district because the area has a Naga population and they want to see Naga people united under one administrative construct, rather than divided more than they already are.  Now they have problems from within as well: a group called the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation is calling for a new state, Frontier Nagaland, to be carved out of Nagaland.  They held a large rally this week.

This week's South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the United Democratic Liberation Army (UDLA), a Bru and Bengali Muslim group based in southern Assam.  Indian security forces have taken notice of this and one of its splinter groups, the only two Bru groups that remain operational.  The author predicts that as a result “it is unlikely that these groups will retain their capacities for disruption and violence for long”.

Allegations were made about Paresh Baruah’s business investments in Bangladesh this week.  Indian intelligence says he’s invested over US$20million in that country.  ULFA promptly issued a press release denying the claims.

The Meghalaya government has handed over land to the North East Frontier Railway for the construction of a railway that would link the state to the rest of the country.

ULFA signs pact, Bangladesh visit disappoints

A suspension of operations pact was signed between the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the Indian and Assam Governments on the first day of their latest round of talks in Delhi. The pact is a stop gap measure, intended to be in place until a political agreement is reached.  Commentators have provided a full spectrum of responses, from optimism - because for example the move echoes similar steps taken earlier in Tripura - to mystification - how can a ceasefire be declared when one of the parties is for all intents and purposes already disarmed?  Parallel talks involving the Karbi Longri National Liberation Front (KLNLF), a group with close ties to ULFA, were inconclusive.

Meanwhile, the Indian Government is worried that the recent acquisition of Chinese arms by the Paresh Baruah, or anti-talks, faction of ULFA (see this post) could ultimately be destined for Maoists.  Bibhu Prasad Routray recently wrote an article on fledgling northeast-Maoist militant links.  In an interesting development, given the credit given to Bangladesh in ultimately bringing talks faction of ULFA to the negotiating table, anti-talk faction bases in Burma were attacked by the Burmese army (with supplies from the Indian government) this week. 

The general consensus on PM Manmohan Singh's visit, together with a number of northeast Chief Ministers, to Bangladesh this week, is disappointment, tempered by some important gains.  West Bengal's relatively new Chief Minister pulled out at the last minute to protest the proposed Teesta river water sharing agreement.  This step apparently worked, with no water sharing agreements signed.  Likely as a result, the much anticipated (on the Indian side) transit agreement also failed to materialise.  This reportedly resulted in a “wave of disappointment” in Tripura.  Neither did the hoped-for extradition of a senior ULFA figure eventuate.

All in all, the visit resulted in one agreement (the obscurely titled “Comprehensive Framework Agreement on Co-operation”) and nine deals (including on university cooperation and renewable energy).  One of the major achievements was the signing of a border pact finalising land swaps between Bangladesh and Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and West Bengal.  This should finally give formerly stateless people definite citizenship rights.  The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)  however decried the lack of consultation on the pact.  

The blockades in Manipur continue.  The SHDDC announced that the general strike was over on Tuesday, but the economic blockades of national highways remain.  The Chinland Guardian has an interview with the General Secretary of the Kuki International Forum.  He gives a good overview of the technicalities behind the demand for a Sadar Hills district.  Another comprehensive background document is available from E-Pao.  And it seems demands for new districts in Manipur are in fashion: another such movement in Tongjei Marin emerged this week.

Despite all the talk about Irom Sharmila of late, the AFSPA was officially extended for another six months in Tripura this week.

29 Naga militants surrendered to authorities in Manipur this week.  Significantly none identified as National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) militants.

Sadar Hills District, bandhs, talks and Naga memories

The possible creation of a new Sadar Hills District in Manipur's Senapati District has dominated news from the northeast this week.  Manipur's Chief Minister, Okram Ibobi, announced on Tuesday that a committee would be formed to consider the creation of the new district in response to a bandh, or blockade, enforced by the 'Sadar Hills District Demand Committee'.  The bandh has been in place on a number of national highways since 31 July.  The United Naga Council (UNC) has instituted a counter-bandh since 21 August.  Both bodies yesterday said they would exempt life-saving drugs from the blockades.  The Chief Minister yesterday assured constituents a solution would be expedited and that any decision would be based on 'administrative convenience'.

Bandhs are also the subject of debate among the Bodo community.  The National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) this week backed the United Democratic People's Front's (UDPF) call for a 48-hour bandh on 26-27 August.  Meanwhile students in the "Bodo belt" this week reportedly decried the bandh culture prevalent in the northeast and requested that educational institutions be exempted.

In United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)-related news this week, the non-talks faction reportedly received an arms consignment from China, free of charge, and is storing the new cache in Burma.  A group of ex-ULFA militants said that the current peace talks are an insult to those who gave their life for Assam's sovereignty and that the pro-talks faction should immediately clarify its stance on sovereignty.

Meanwhile in Mizoram, a procession in favour of the resumption of peace talks between the Mizoram Government and the Hmar People's Convention - Democrats (HPC-D) was held yesterday.  The HPC-D is based in Manipur and seeks Hmar self-government in parts of Manipur, Mizoram and Assam. 

The August issue of the Himal Southasian magazine has two excellent Naga-related features.  In the first, Naga elders remember the time of the 'groupings' in the late 1950s.  The second is a photo feature on the capital of Nagaland, Kohima.

Finally, the Indian Government Home Ministry this week released a list of militant outfits, counting 79 in the northeast.

***This is the first in a new weekly digest format of Seven Sisters.  Feedback welcome!

NSCN-IM targets Autonomous District Council

Last week's edition of the South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the resurgent violence in Manipur.  It details recent violence carried out by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and aimed at members of the local Autonomous District Council (ADC).

The article surmises that the ADC-directed violence is a result of the Manipur (Hill Areas) District Councils (3rd Amendment) Act 2008 - and subsequent ADC elections in 2010 - which the NSCN-IM (and related body the United Naga Council) considers bestows an inferior degree of self-governance to Nagas in Manipur than that provided to other ADCs through the Constitution's Sixth Schedule.

Inter-factional Naga rivalry

The latest installment of the South Asia Intelligence Review contains an assessment of intra-Naga rivalry and violence.  The South Asia Terrorism Portal counts 38 deaths so far this year due to violence between different Naga insurgent groups.  The violence is primarily between the two factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN): the NSCN (Isak-Muivah) and NSCN (Khaplang).  The rival factions are vying for influence in eastern Arunachal Pradesh, near the border with Burma.  In addition, a small number of cadres from these two groups have defected to create a new group, the Zeliangrong United Front.

Views from The Diplomat and South Asia Intelligence Review

The Diplomat this week ran an opinion piece attempting to draw lessons from current events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya for India.


I have a number of issues with this article.  For one, it all but neglects surely the most serious internal threat for India in 2011: the raging Maoist movement. 


Secondly, it trumpets the ability of democracy to nullify "the edge" of insurgencies.  Some of the most respected scholars on the northeast (such as Sanjib Baruah in his 2005 book Durable Disorder) have persuasively argued that, although there are performances of democracy in the form of local governments in the northeast, it is the parallel autocratic system of governance, allowed by the AFSPA and executed by the centrally-appointed governors, that is dominant in the region.  The article suggests that is is India's vibrant democracy that has brought ULFA to the negotiating table.  The informed consensus is that it has more to do with a friendly government in Dhaka cracking down on insurgent bases in its borderlands.  Moreover there is a long way to go before a victory can be claimed of the current ULFA talks. 


Finally, the links to the current political upheaval in the Arab world are tenuous.  What the overthrow of a 40 year autocracy in Egypt in a manner of weeks has to do with 50 years of attrition in Manipur and elsewhere in the northeast is unclear.


Another article this week that used the 'Jasmine revolution' as a starting point to assess the state of affairs of South Asian conflicts is to be found in the South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR).  This more factually-based account points to the Maoist insurgency as the exception to a general improvement in the region's conflicts in the last couple of years, including in the northeast.

MPP condemns tripartite talks

The leader of the Manipur People's Party (MPP) this week called for the cessation of tripartite talks between the Government of India, government of Manipur and the United Naga Council which began earlier this month.  The MPP appears to be concerned about an increased intensity of efforts to create a Naga state crossing existing state lines, a move that would carve out parts of Manipur.

Naga progress due to cooperation with Burma: Hindustan Times

The Hindustan Times ran an interesting editorial earlier this week on Burma, and India's engagement with different elements within that country, crediting the progress in reconciliation with Naga insurgents to a decision by the Indian government to cooperate with Burma.

Senapati - Insurgent Sanctuary (SAIR)

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) of the South Asia Terrorism Portal published a briefing on the Senapati valley of Manipur this week, covering in detail violent events relating to the Kuki and Naga insurgencies in that district over the last decade.

Interview: Naga National Council

Indian magazine Tehelka carries an interesting interview with Naga National Council veteran Thinoselie Keyho covering training in China in the sixties, corruption in present day Nagaland and prospects for reconciliation between the various Naga nationalist groups.