A week of progress: new CM for AP and an end to the blockade in Manipur

The Kuki Sadar Hills District Demand Committee (SHDDC)-initiated blockade was finally lifted this week following written assurance from the Manipur state government that Sadar Hills district would be created.  The United Naga Council counter-blockade remains in place.  The LA Times has a pessimistic but interesting article on the blockades.  One claim I found particularly interesting, which is mentioned only in passing, is that those seeking local government positions in Manipur need to pay bribes in the region of $10,000.

Nabam Tuki was sworn in as the new Chief Minister for Arunachal Pradesh on Tuesday.  Tuki, the leader of the agitation against previous CM Jarbom Gamlin, was nominated by Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi.  He is from the Nishi ethnic group.

The hardline Paresh Baruah-led ULFA faction warned civilians to stay away from security and political party “installations” which it vowed to strike this week.  It also reportedly launched an extortion drive to raise much needed funds.  External pressure on the group continues with fresh raids on ULFA camps in Bangladesh  reported yesterday. 

In Darjeeling-area politics, it was reported this week that the title Gorka Territorial Administration (GTA) will be changed to Gorkhaland and Adivasi Territorial Administration after an agreement between the Gorka Janmukti Morcha (GJM) and Adivasi Vikas Parishad (AVP).  It seems that the GJM's tactic is to offer reserved Adivasi seats in turn for the inclusion of the Terai and Dooars in the GTA (or GATA).  Confusingly, it was subsequently reported that such an agreement was not in fact reached, but rather that it was only proposed by the GJM.  Regardless, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee appears to be taking credit for being behind the agreement's brokerage.

Banerjee also said this week that her party, Trinamool, aspires to national influence and will begin its expansion in northeastern states. 

Four police and one civilian were killed in a shootout between police and suspected Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) militants in Western Meghalaya on Monday.  The state government has vowed to step up operations against the outfit, while the central government this week sought its views on classifying the GNLA as an outlawed rebel outfit.

CNN-IBN reports that the Indian army intends to station an additional 100,000 men in Arunachal Pradesh.  This follows recent reports (see this post) that India intends to increase its missile deployment along the Chinese border in that state.

This week's South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the Maoist infiltration of the northeast, describing Arunachal as a "hotbed" of Maoist activity.  Times Now reported this week that the central government has intelligence that there is increased Maoist activity in the Arunachal-Assam border area.  

In other border-related news this week, tension persists on the Assam-Nagaland border, The Asian Age has an article on the many hardships of living on the India-Bangla border - despite the recent border agreement between the two countries - and it was reported that the Border Security Force (BSF) is likely to replace the Assam Rifles on the India-Burma border.  A similar report was made about twelve months ago.

Firearms, messy politics and CRAPB

Northeast India made international headlines this week due to, of course, the 6.9 magnitude earthquake in Sikkim.  We felt it here in Pokhara.

India Armed Violence Assessment, a new Small Arms Survey project, released two reports this week.  The first documents the prevalence of firearm murders across India's states and territories.  The most violent states (firearm murders per 100,000 population) are listed in table 3.  Three northeastern states make this list, including the top two (Manipur and Nagaland, which are considerably higher than the next highest state; Arunachal Pradesh is 7^th).  Sikkim is one of the states with the least firearm murders (table 4).  The report also discusses the limited available information on autopsy rates.  Interestingly Imphal is found to have the highest rate of any Indian city of autopsies for gun shot victims.

The second report compares the number of deaths due to terrorism (including, perhaps controversially, insurgent movements) and crime in India.  It concludes that the latter is politically neglected given the relatively higher number of victims of criminal violence in the country.  Northeast India is briefly considered on pages 5-6.  In related news, two workers from Bihar were shot dead in Manipur this week. 

The Assam Assembly will hold a one day special sitting on the recent land swap deal with Bangladesh in October in response to expressions of dissatisfaction from various quarters with the deal and the lack of prior consultation. 

A steady, if thin, stream of claims of links between northeast groups and Maoists prevails in the Indian media.  An article this week says Maoists are present in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and that they have links with ULFA and the NSCN-IM.  They are also said to be working with anti hydro-electric dam activists.

Politics is messy in Arunachal Pradesh, especially since the death of the previous Chief Minister in a helicopter accident last year.  A group of rebel ruling Congress Party MLAs have been in New Delhi since July seeking the removal of present Chief Minister Jarbom Gamlin.  They are now calling for the direct intervention of Congress President Sonia Gandhi.

The first meeting of the Committee on Reorganization of Administrative and Police Boundaries (CRAPB) was finally held this week.  The CRAPB is the body tasked with producing a report to the state government on the Sadar Hills District issue that is currently crippling life in Manipur.  They have been given three months to submit the report.  Bibhu Prasad Routray this week considered the various next steps the state government can take on this issue.  In brief, these are to force open the highways, create the Sadar Hills District as desired by Kuki groups, create the district under a different name, try and have Kukis and Nagas talk to each other and do nothing.  None of these options seem particularly promising.

Naga groups oppose Sadar Hills being transformed into a fully-fledged district because the area has a Naga population and they want to see Naga people united under one administrative construct, rather than divided more than they already are.  Now they have problems from within as well: a group called the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation is calling for a new state, Frontier Nagaland, to be carved out of Nagaland.  They held a large rally this week.

This week's South Asia Intelligence Review has an article on the United Democratic Liberation Army (UDLA), a Bru and Bengali Muslim group based in southern Assam.  Indian security forces have taken notice of this and one of its splinter groups, the only two Bru groups that remain operational.  The author predicts that as a result “it is unlikely that these groups will retain their capacities for disruption and violence for long”.

Allegations were made about Paresh Baruah’s business investments in Bangladesh this week.  Indian intelligence says he’s invested over US$20million in that country.  ULFA promptly issued a press release denying the claims.

The Meghalaya government has handed over land to the North East Frontier Railway for the construction of a railway that would link the state to the rest of the country.

ULFA revitalisation

The Assam Tribune reported this week that ULFA leader and hardliner Paresh Baruah is working to revitalise the outfit.  This follows a report last week that Maoists are looking to foster a relationship with Baruah in the wake of talks between elements of ULFA and the central government.  But Baruah has put a call out to those engaged in talks to return to Assam and to the frontline, just as they have called for him to join the talks.

Wikileaks: GoI pays little attention to northeast insurgencies

In an April 2006 briefing cable ahead of a US-India counter terrorism (CT) joint working group meeting a US government official notes that "terrorism" in the northeast "attracts little attention from Delhi".  The cable states that the Government of India is preoccupied with jihadi terrorism originating in Kashmir and Pakistan and relatively disinterested in violence due to the maoist and northeast movements.  The official speculates on the reasons for this GoI prioritisation, including that jihadi violence is not restricted to rural areas and the government's view that solutions to insurgencies in the maoist belt and the northeast are likely to be reached by improving local governance and economic opportunities.

Views from The Diplomat and South Asia Intelligence Review

The Diplomat this week ran an opinion piece attempting to draw lessons from current events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya for India.


I have a number of issues with this article.  For one, it all but neglects surely the most serious internal threat for India in 2011: the raging Maoist movement. 


Secondly, it trumpets the ability of democracy to nullify "the edge" of insurgencies.  Some of the most respected scholars on the northeast (such as Sanjib Baruah in his 2005 book Durable Disorder) have persuasively argued that, although there are performances of democracy in the form of local governments in the northeast, it is the parallel autocratic system of governance, allowed by the AFSPA and executed by the centrally-appointed governors, that is dominant in the region.  The article suggests that is is India's vibrant democracy that has brought ULFA to the negotiating table.  The informed consensus is that it has more to do with a friendly government in Dhaka cracking down on insurgent bases in its borderlands.  Moreover there is a long way to go before a victory can be claimed of the current ULFA talks. 


Finally, the links to the current political upheaval in the Arab world are tenuous.  What the overthrow of a 40 year autocracy in Egypt in a manner of weeks has to do with 50 years of attrition in Manipur and elsewhere in the northeast is unclear.


Another article this week that used the 'Jasmine revolution' as a starting point to assess the state of affairs of South Asian conflicts is to be found in the South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR).  This more factually-based account points to the Maoist insurgency as the exception to a general improvement in the region's conflicts in the last couple of years, including in the northeast.

Deepened Maoist interest in northeast?

Further to previous reports of expressions of support from Maoist groups for northeast Indian insurgents, the Assam Tribune this week ran an article stating that sources in the Ministry of Home Affairs have suggested that Maoists may be seeking to establish bases in the region and that security agencies suspect northeast militants of supplying weapons to Maoists.

Joint declaration between Maoists and Manipuri group

Security agencies have reportedly unearthed a declaration jointly issued by the Revolutionary People's Front and the CPI-Maoists in which the two express mutual moral support and extend offers of material support for the other's cause.

The Communist Part of India - Maoist (CPI-Maoist) is the main group behind India's Maoist or Naxalite movement.  The Revolutionary People's Front is based in Manipur.